Who Breaks First: ETF Cost Basis Part 2/3 [Report]

In Part 1, we revealed the floor: $80,000. We mapped the fortress zone between $65,000 and $70,000 where 15.2% of capital accumulated. We identified the air pocket between $75,000 and $85,000 where support thins dramatically. We showed that 38% of holdings are underwater despite the aggregate showing $11.85 billion in profit.

That analysis treated the ETF complex as a single entity. It isn’t. In our sample, the aggregate cost basis is an average across 11 issuers with 11 different strategies, 11 different investor bases, and 11 different pain thresholds. Averages flatten the story. The real action lives in the dispersion.

The Spread. The entity with the lowest cost basis sits at $64,600. The entity with the highest sits at $91,600. That’s a $27,000 gap, a 42% difference between the best positioned and the worst positioned players in the ETF complex. One is +38% profitable with room to spare. The other is already 2.6% underwater and actively bleeding capital.

Same asset class. Same time period. Radically different outcomes based on accumulation strategy and timing.

What This Part Reveals:

• The full entity leaderboard with cost basis, P&L, and dollar exposure for all 11 issuers
• Why 90-day buyers are down 22.5% and what that means for cascade risk
• The exact sequence in which entities go underwater as price drops
• Who is the canary, who is the anchor, and who is the first domino

The aggregate floor tells you where support lives. The entity breakdown tells you how it breaks.

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