Five Signals of FOMC Impact: How Interest Rate Decisions Reshape Crypto Market Microstructure [Report]

This analysis examines 2,166 minutes of orderbook data from Binance’s BTC/FDUSD market across six FOMC events in 2025 - five hold decisions (January 29, March 19, May 7, June 18, July 30) and one rate cut (September 17). Each event captures six hours of minute-by-minute data from 15:00 to 21:00 UTC, totaling 361 data points per event. The dataset employs 5-minute moving averages to smooth volatility, spread, depth, imbalance, and pressure metrics, with historical medians and interquartile ranges calculated from the five hold events for comparison against the September cut. This research quantifies how different Federal Reserve decision types create distinct market microstructure disruptions, providing systematic frameworks for execution around central bank announcements.

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