2026 Outlook: The End of the Four-Year Cycle [Report]

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Bitcoin enters 2026 de-risked but fragile: leverage purged, valuations reset, but liquidity still impaired. This outlook breaks down what that means and where it leads.
 
  • Current Setup: Why October's correction was necessary, what the indicator dashboard shows now, and why the $80K ETF cost basis creates a structural floor.
  • Scenario Analysis: Four probability-weighted outcomes from $60K to $180K, with specific assumptions and early warning signals for each. Base case (50%): $90-120K. Bull case (25%): $120-180K. Bear case (20%): $60-80K.
  • 2026 Catalysts: The regulatory and institutional triggers that could move markets: DOL 401(k) guidance, bank custody launches, wirehouse adoption unlocking $15 trillion in client assets, and ETH staking ETF potential.
  • The Watchlist: Specific thresholds for basis APR, ETF flows, funding rates, and order book depth that signal regime changes before they're obvious. Know when base case shifts to bull or bear.
  • Key Takeaways: Six positioning principles for the year ahead.

 

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Amberdata 2026 outlook

 

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